he housing market is not just “real estate.” It is a high-frequency read on household confidence, credit access, and labor-market stability—because home buying sits at the intersection of income, savings, and financing conditions. In Axel Fabela Iturbe’s lens, that makes Housing one of the cleanest “big market” dashboards: when the tape changes here, it tends to echo across consumption and business sentiment.
Below is a structured way to track the U.S. housing market into 2026 using a small set of measurable indicators—less noise, more signal.
1) Demand is visible in turnover, not headlines
A practical starting point is existing-home sales, because they capture what people actually did, not what they said in a survey.
The latest reported snapshot (November 2025) shows annualized existing-home sales around 4.13 million, a median price near $409,200, and inventory around 4.2 months.
Two takeaways matter more than the raw numbers:
- Months of supply is a market “pressure gauge.” When it rises, buyers gain negotiating power; when it falls, sellers regain control.
- Turnover trend is often a cleaner read than price prints in the short run, because prices can stay sticky even when activity cools.
Also note the calendar: the National Association of REALTORS® scheduled the next existing-home sales release (December 2025 data) for January 14, 2026. That timing matters if you’re building a weekly or monthly monitoring routine.
2) Supply is a pipeline: permits → starts → completions
Axel’s “trend-first” approach treats supply as a pipeline, not a single data point. The U.S. Census Bureau’s new residential construction release (covering October 2025) provides a clean pipeline view:
- Building permits: ~1.412M (SAAR)
- Housing starts: ~1.246M (SAAR)
- Housing completions: ~1.386M (SAAR)
Why the pipeline matters:
- Permits reflect intent (builders’ confidence + local approvals).
- Starts reflect execution (groundbreaking activity).
- Completions determine near-term inventory relief (what can actually be delivered).
A subtle but important nuance from the same release: single-family starts rose even as overall starts fell—often a sign that builders are reallocating across segments rather than simply exiting the field.
3) Price momentum is real, but it arrives with a lag
Home price indices are useful—if you respect their delay.
The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is published with a lag and uses a moving-average construction; the most recently posted observation in the FRED series shows October 2025 at 328.442, with the next release date indicated for January 27, 2026.
How Axel typically uses lagged price series:
- Not for “calling the top” week-to-week.
- But for identifying whether the market is accelerating, plateauing, or cooling over multi-month horizons—then cross-checking that against inventory and construction.
4) Affordability is the gatekeeper (without turning this into a “rates market” piece)
Housing demand is constrained by payment math. The simplest, most repeatable proxy is weekly mortgage rate direction.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the U.S. 30-year fixed averaged 6.16% as of January 8, 2026 (vs. 6.93% a year earlier).
Even modest declines can change buyer behavior at the margin—especially for first-time buyers. But in Axel’s framework, affordability is not just financing cost; it’s financing cost relative to income growth and home prices. If prices stay firm while wages lag, activity can stall even when borrowing costs ease.
5) A 2026 “signal board” you can update in 10 minutes
To keep the process repeatable (and to avoid narrative whiplash), Axel’s style favors a compact dashboard:
Turnover
- Existing-home sales trend (3-month direction)
- Months of inventory (tightening vs loosening)
Pipeline
- Permits vs starts (confidence vs execution)
- Completions (near-term supply impact)
Price regime
- Case-Shiller direction over 3–6 months (accelerating vs flattening)
Affordability gate
- Weekly mortgage rate trend (up, down, range)
When these four columns point the same way, trend-following is easier. When they diverge, expect chop—and manage risk accordingly.
Three plausible setups for 2026
Axel tends to avoid single-outcome forecasts. Instead, he frames “if-then” paths:
- Soft Thaw (gradual improvement)
- Activity rises modestly as affordability pressure eases.
- Inventory edges up without triggering price collapse.
- Stuck Range (sideways market)
- Sales stay capped by payment math.
- Prices drift rather than break—regional dispersion increases.
- Volatility Rebound (two-way risk)
- Supply and demand swing quickly with sentiment and financing shifts.
- Negotiating power flips faster; pricing becomes more tactical.
The point is not to pick one story—it’s to recognize which story the data is starting to validate.
How Axel’s method shows up in housing analysis
Having trained in finance at the University of Chicago and started his career doing market and risk work at Morgan Stanley, Axel Fabela Iturbe’s market writing typically emphasizes two layers: trend identification and capital discipline—what he later packaged as (trend control) and a more algorithmic approach to position sizing and risk calibration. That background naturally fits housing, where regime shifts can be slow—but once they turn, they tend to persist.
Bottom line: For 2026, the housing market can be monitored with a tight set of indicators—turnover, supply pipeline, price regime, and affordability—updated on a schedule aligned to major releases (not social media cycles).