Bitcoin enters late 2025 at a pivotal moment. After setting a record high above $109,000 in January 2025, BTC has since slipped, trading back below the six-figure mark and even dropping under $90,000 in November amid profit-taking and ETF outflows.
For traders, the question is not only where Bitcoin’s price might go next, but which forces are now in control: the structural demand from long-term holders and institutions, or the cyclical pressures of profit-taking, regulation and macro uncertainty.
This FxCapPro report outlines the key drivers, risks and price scenarios shaping Bitcoin’s market trend into 2026.
1. Where the Bitcoin market stands now
Recent data highlight a market in late-cycle consolidation rather than a clear top or bottom:
- Bitcoin reached an all-time high around $109k in January 2025, but by April it was trading near $92k, its weakest post-halving performance versus prior cycles.
- In the second half of 2025, BTC repeatedly fell below $100k as long-term holders realized profits and roughly $45 billion in value was sold, dragging price under the psychological six-figure level.
- More recently, BlackRock’s flagship spot ETF saw a single-day outflow of $523 million, coinciding with BTC’s drop below $90k, the lowest level in seven months.
Price action is therefore best described as a sharp pullback from euphoric highs, driven less by forced liquidations and more by deliberate profit-taking and rotation into safer assets such as gold.
2. Structural bullish forces: halving, scarcity and institutional demand
2.1 The 2024 halving and the new supply regime
On 20 April 2024, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving, cutting the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
Historically:
- Each halving has reduced the flow of new coins and helped set the stage for multi-year bull markets.
- However, 2024–2025 has delivered much smaller post-halving gains than past cycles, suggesting a maturing asset with lower relative upside.
Even if the classic “explosive post-halving rally” is weaker, the halving still hard-codes growing scarcity into Bitcoin’s long-term narrative.
2.2 Long-term holders dominate supply
On-chain metrics show that a large share of BTC sits with structural investors rather than short-term traders:
- Entities holding BTC for over 155 days now control around 15.9 million coins, a double-digit quarter-on-quarter increase.
- The “1+ year HODL wave” accounts for about 64% of total supply, a concentration last seen near previous major bull markets.
This dominance of long-term holders typically reduces active float, strengthens support levels and sets the foundation for renewed uptrends once selling pressure abates.
2.3 Institutional adoption via ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have transformed the market structure:
- U.S. spot ETFs collectively manage tens of billions of dollars in BTC exposure, with some estimates placing total assets around $65 billion in 2025.
- Asset-management heavyweights like BlackRock, Fidelity and others treat BTC as a macro asset within multi-asset portfolios, rather than a fringe speculation.
Institutional adoption is therefore a two-edged sword: it deepens liquidity and credibility but also ties Bitcoin more tightly to global risk cycles and ETF investor sentiment.
3. Near-term headwinds: profit-taking, ETF flows and macro risks
Several factors currently lean against an immediate renewed surge to fresh highs:
- ETF outflows and sentiment reversal
After strong inflows earlier in 2025, some ETFs are now reporting record redemptions, signaling a rotation away from high-beta assets. - Long-term holders reducing exposure at the margins
Recent data attribute sizeable sell-offs (around $45 billion) to holders who traditionally “buy and hold”, indicating either waning confidence or disciplined profit-taking. - Muted post-halving performance
Compared with previous cycles where BTC rallied hundreds of percent after halvings, the 2024–2025 cycle’s weaker follow-through suggests that the halving effect alone is no longer enough to drive exponential gains. - Macro and regulatory uncertainty
Shifts in interest-rate expectations, fiscal debates and evolving crypto regulation continue to influence risk appetite. At the same time, new laws around stablecoins and yield-bearing assets are changing capital flows within the broader crypto ecosystem.
In combination, these headwinds support the idea that Bitcoin is in a late-stage bull-market correction or consolidation, rather than the early innings of a fresh parabolic move.
4. Technical & on-chain signals: key BTC zones for 2025
Analysts tracking derivatives, moving averages and on-chain realized price levels highlight several important zones:
- Some institutional research identifies $105k–$123k as an area where moving averages and derivatives positioning point to strong resistance and prior demand.
- Recent pullbacks below $100k have not yet destroyed the longer-term bull structure, but they do confirm that six-figure prices invite heavy profit-taking.
On-chain studies characterize current conditions as “late-stage accumulation”: momentum is fading, but structural demand from ETFs, corporates and large holders remains intact.
From an FxCapPro viewpoint, this suggests a market that is transitioning from explosive price discovery to a more range-bound, institutionally driven phase.
5. FxCapPro scenarios for Bitcoin’s 2025–2026 trend
Rather than a single point forecast, FxCapPro considers three broad scenarios. These are analytical frameworks, not guarantees or investment advice.
5.1 Base case: Extended consolidation, gradual new highs
- BTC spends substantial time oscillating in a wide band around the six-figure mark, with sharp swings driven by ETF flows, macro data and regulation headlines.
- Institutional allocations continue to grow, but at a slower, more selective pace. Retail participation remains active but not euphoric.
- Under this path, Bitcoin may re-test or modestly exceed its prior high as demand gradually absorbs supply from profit-taking holders, but upside is less explosive than in earlier cycles.
5.2 Bull case: Renewed breakout on supply squeeze
- ETF inflows resume strongly, some pension funds and large asset managers move from “pilot allocations” to full policy weights, tightening the liquid supply.
- Global monetary policy turns more supportive, with real yields falling and risk assets re-rating higher.
- In this environment, it is plausible for BTC to sustain prices well above prior highs and explore new territory, potentially validating technical projections that point toward the 120k–130k zone and beyond – though the path would likely remain volatile.
5.3 Bear case: Deeper correction and regime reset
- Persistent ETF outflows and regulatory setbacks erode confidence, while macro shocks push investors toward cash and government bonds.
- Long-term holders accelerate distribution, and on-chain support levels fail, driving a multi-month drawdown reminiscent of previous bear markets.
- In this case, BTC could revisit significantly lower levels than current prices, potentially retracing much of the 2024–2025 rally before a new accumulation phase begins.
FxCapPro currently views the base case as the most consistent with available data: the structural story remains constructive, but exuberant expectations for near-term gains are being repriced.
6. Key signals BTC traders should watch
To navigate the coming months, FxCapPro suggests monitoring:
- Spot ETF flows – sustained net inflows or outflows are one of the clearest indicators of institutional risk appetite.
- Long-term holder behavior – changes in the share of supply held for 155+ days or 1+ years, as well as realized profit/loss metrics, can signal early shifts in cycle dynamics.
- Macro policy and real yields – easing cycles, fiscal debates and inflation surprises influence Bitcoin’s appeal as a macro hedge versus a high-beta risk asset.
- Derivatives positioning – funding rates, options skew and open interest help identify crowded trades and potential squeeze points.
- Regulation and market structure – new legislation on stablecoins, ETFs, custody and taxation can reshape capital flows into or out of crypto.
7. FxCapPro conclusion & risk reminder
Bitcoin in late 2025 looks less like a speculative experiment and more like a global macro asset with a maturing cycle:
- The 2024 halving and concentration of supply in long-term hands support a constructive long-run narrative.
- At the same time, weaker post-halving performance, ETF outflows and macro uncertainty argue for realistic expectations and disciplined risk management in the near term.
For traders and investors, the focus now shifts from chasing parabolic moves to navigating a structurally bullish but tactically volatile market, where entries, exits and position sizing matter as much as directional views.