Major currency markets are under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, diverging central-bank policies and mounting macro risks.
Key Highlights
- The global forex outlook for November 2025 highlights the U.S. dollar’s firm position amid inflation and interest-rate expectations.
- The EUR/USD pair is flagged by analysts as vulnerable, with forecasts pointing to a move toward the 1.08 area if current trends persist.
- The AUD/USD is also under pressure due to structural weakness in Australia and renewed U.S./China trade tensions, despite an unchanged cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Key upcoming data—such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and central-bank commentary—are expected to drive currency volatility in the near term.
U.S. Dollar Holds Firm Amid Diverging Policy Paths
The U.S. dollar remains a dominant force in forex markets as global currency dynamics evolve. According to recent analysis, the dollar’s strength is supported by persistent inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve may retain a tighter stance for longer than many peers. As a result, other major currencies face downside risk as yield differentials push flows toward the greenback.
EUR/USD Faces Downside Risk
One of the major pairs in focus is EUR/USD. Analysts working the November 2025 outlook note that the euro’s lack of pace in travel toward a looser stance, combined with Fed expectations, is creating a tilt toward lower levels. For example, forecasts point toward the 1.08 region if support near 1.1550-1.1600 fails. For traders, the breakdown through technical trend supports could trigger further selling.
AUD/USD Under Strain from External and Domestic Factors
The Australian dollar has its own headwinds. Despite the RBA holding the cash rate at 3.60%, the pair AUD/USD remains under pressure from global growth concerns, renewed U.S./China tension, and underlying structural weakness in the AUD economy. This dynamic further underlines how diverse factors—from tariffs to regional growth—can weigh on commodity-linked currencies when the USD firms.
Upcoming Data and Volatility Triggers
With major macro-events on the calendar—like U.S. employment data, PMI releases, and central-bank speeches—currency markets may see elevated volatility. Commentary highlights that lack of scheduled official releases makes each data point more impactful. Traders should prepare for wider ranges and potential rapid re-pricing of rate-cut expectations and growth outlooks.
Bottom Line
The forex market in November 2025 is increasingly shaped by U.S. dollar dominance, central-bank divergence and macro-event risk. EUR/USD and AUD/USD illustrate how both major and commodity-linked currencies are vulnerable when the dollar rallies. For market participants, structuring risk around key data releases and policy commentary will be essential.